Invernage? Au contraire, mes amis!

A sign, not for invernage, in Brittany

A sign, not for invernage, in Brittany

I saw a lot of invernage signs this summer in Brittany and finally figured out that they were advertising for winter boat storage. As winter is coming on here in northern Italy, I am getting ready for reverse blog invernage. I spent this summer not blogging for various reasons, but mostly because I just didn’t feel like it. I found that swimming in Twitter’s activity streams was quite enough online sharing for this guy.

There has been a lot of movement in all the fields that I am interested in and monitoring, namely Twitter and its ecosystem, location-aware services, mobile apps, open protocols and standards, online identity management and augmented reality, in no particular order. So I might just be writing about those. And how about those Yankees?

But right now I’ve got something much more important to do. The keyword is ragù. See you on the flipside.

Postcard

This is a postcard from Bretagne, without pictures, without charming descriptions of fresh sea breezes, oysters, scallops and the like. Lucky me. I’ll be back soon.

Freeky deeky

The “information wants to be free” discussion blew up again at the end of June, with the usual polar positions being taken as if this was a winner-take-all fight. It always seem as if the debate is framed by the extremes with the protagonists talking past each other, not at each other.

cash register

The New York Times actually has a pretty balanced overview that you can read hereBill Gurley and Bijan Sabet have also written good posts.

The coiner of “information wants to be free”, Stuart Brand, added a little something to that sentence, he also said that “information wants to be expensive”.  Why did the last bit not get the traction of the first?

Brand was saying that there will always be tension between these positions and that businesses will forever be maneuvering in this territory, adjusting their business models appropriately.

Apropos to this brouhaha Chris Anderson is currently releasing the audiobook version of the book Free — free for the unabridged version and $7.49 for the abridged version! Why? Because it takes 6 hours to listen to the full version and only 3 hours to listen to the abridged version which contains “the most important and engaging chapters and points, cutting three hours from the length without losing key concepts. Time is money!”

That is precisely the kind of model that “freetards” like myself are endorsing. Make it easy for the people who want to give you money to do so, first and foremost by creating an offer that is immediately understood to be better than free for a sufficient % of your audience (via Corey Doctorow and Kevin Kelley).

It shouldn’t really be that hard to understand that the free business model simply means—

Give away something that used to cost money. Make money in a different way as a result of the disruption. Have happier customers and higher profits.

And that’s the money quote!  :-)

Pixelate me

A pixel, or picture element, is the smallest item of information in a digital image. It’s that single square in the mosaic that colors the screen upon which you are reading these words.

pix

It is essentially a dumb element, it knows only one thing — what color it is. It has no idea about the color of the other pixels around it. And, above all, it does not know what the totality of the pixels on the screen represents. A pixel is ignorant about whether it is playing a bit part in a digital photo of your dog or a completely black field.

In contrast to the pixel, the textual elements that you are reading here and markup language that tell your browser what to display are machine-readable, searchable and semantic. The future of the Internet is currently aimed at this semantic web,  the web of organized data as described by Tim Berners-Lee, the indexed web of Google and the computational web of Wolfram Alfa.

This post, however, sings the praise of the dumb pixel.

Paradoxically, due to the paucity of information contained in the pixel, collections of pixels, aka images, can penetrate filters and can spread information through unexpected channels. A good example would be photographs of protesters in Iran carrying signs in English designed to be distributed through blogs, newspapers and social networks. The textual filters of the Iranian government cannot make sense of what the group of pixels is expressing.

Another interesting setting to observe the power of the pixel is in the emerging use of Twitter avatars as an auxiliary communication channel. Huh? Once again turning to the political events in Iran, many thousands of people have used a simple green overlay on their twavatars to signify solidarity with the protesters. A few of the more geeky users are inserting badges and messages in their twavatars.

twavatars for Iran protests

Accompanying the 140 character tweet without consuming even 1 character is the meta-data, expressed in pixels: “This person supports the post-election protesters in Iran.”

The more geeky among you will point to advances being made in image recognition software. There will come a day that almost all images will be scanned, interpreted, amended with meta-data and converted into machine-understandable formats. OCR software is already quite sophisticated. On the other hand, there will be an endless game of whack-a-mole in which developers will try to construct images of dumb pixels that will fool recognition software. You can see this being played out today in the captcha images used in some site registration and blog commenting systems. Porn and spam merchants will, of course, lead the charge!

Until the day machines will be able to make as much sense of pixel mosaics as human beings can, let us take a moment to hail the humble pixel!

Hot or not in Como, Italy

I will pass an important milestone at the end of August this year. Como, Italy will move into first place as the city in which I will have lived the longest, 17 years, surpassing North Bellmore, NY. Strange.

Man standing near Lake Como

Man standing near Lake Como

Italy is a funny place for a transplanted urban American to live. In no particular order, here is a quick list of everyday facts that you may find mildly amusing.

  • Many people still pay utility bills by lining up in the post office to pay in cash.
  • On Monday morning most local stores are closed, except for food stores. On Monday afternoon the situation reverses. The food stores close and the other stores open. This is the situation in Como. Each city will have its own schedule of odd openings and closings.
  • It’s not uncommon to find female janitors working in the mens’ bathroom in highway rest stops.
  • Most shoe stores here don’t sell shoe laces, those are found in the button shops along with sewing supplies, underwear and socks.

In recent years I have immersed my professional self in web and mobile culture and technology. It didn’t take long to realize that Como in particular, and Italy in general, are light years away from the SF Bay Area, from NY, from Boston, London and the other centers of entrepreneurial activity around the world. yet this is not really a problem for me as I like to work out of the echo chamber. It helps me keep a more holistic perspective.

On the other hand, I have come to understand that Italy has some deeply rooted cultural attitudes that will hold it back from taking part in the most interesting and radically different business models being developed around the world, the ones being catalyzed by digital connectedness. As an ex-pat and consultant I can just opt out, but it will take the changing of the generational guard before the business climate changes. I see these 3 factors as being especially relevant:

  • Italian business people tend to view the world as a zero sum game. If I win, you lose. The idea that working openly and cooperatively can grow the market for everybody so that tomorrow’s 10% market share can be bigger than yesterday’s 15% is a foreign concept.
  • Success is paradoxically viewed with suspicion. The assumption is that it was based on knowing someone on the inside or by immoral (at best) or illegal (at worst) activities. This is underscored by the behavior of most successful people; they rarely engage in mentoring or giving back to the market in which they succeeded. Happily there are some notable exceptions.
  • Lastly, and of crucial importance, the notion that an intelligent failure is often the prerequisite for success is not widely accepted. Italians play a kind of “hot or notbased on your most recent venture. Are you on your way up or way down? This is a shame because it stifles the creativity of entrepreneurs and will drive the best people to the Valley, London, NY or China.

What does this mean for me? For the time being, I still like that fact that I can take a break from work by walking down the old stone staircase into the piazza to have a great coffee in any one of many bars, or that I can take my bike to the pier, hop a ferry to a small lakeside town, have lunch and be back at work in a few hours. There is a very dependable and fast 3G signal here and my iPhone serves as a mobile office without breaking a sweat. Being connected to the net and being an hour away from 3 different international airports works for me.

And don’t forget that in Italy I can greet a friend with “Ciao, bella!” (cheek kissing included) without risking being taken for a pretentious dandy :-P  .

@everybody: stop drinking the Kool-aid

Fail Whale Pale Ale label

Twitter has become a valuable asset to me and a part of my everyday reading and writing. So, I’m a fan. But.

By now you’ve probably read the fawning Time magazine article by Steven Johnson, “How Twitter Will Change the Way We Live“. Now I don’t want to be contrarian just for the hell of it, but enough is enough.

OK, sure the media outlets love the Hollywood story that is Twitter. Of course Twitter’s high profile investors have a vested interest in evangelizing the phenomenon. And who could expect less from the Twitter-addict community? Even I have tasted the holy Kool-aid!

But when Twittermania flavors serious journalism, we need to be more critical.

For starters the article asserts that Facebook’s audience “is still several times as large as Twitter’s”. In fact Facebook’s audience and user base are most likely 20 times larger than Twitter’s, the churn of new users on Facebook is considerably lower than Twitter’s and Facebook is still growing much faster in absolute numbers.  “Several times as large” is just misleading. This is neither pedantic nor picayune.

And why is it that Johnson makes no mention of the Nielsen study about user retention?

Currently, more than 60 percent of U.S. Twitter users fail to return the following month, or in other words, Twitter’s audience retention rate, or the percentage of a given month’s users who come back the following month, is currently about 40 percent… Compare it to the two heavily-touted behemoths of social networking when they were just starting out. Doing so below, we found that even when Facebook and MySpace were emerging networks like Twitter is now, their retention rates were twice as high. When they went through their explosive growth phases, that retention only went up, and both sit at nearly 70 percent today.

The Nielsen study is not perfect and raises more questions than it answers, but it surely merits examination in any discussion of the Twitter phenomenon.

Another recent study (published too late to be included in the Time article), “New Twitter Research: Men Follow Men and Nobody Tweets” by Bill Heil and Mikolaj Piskorski, adds fuel to the fire.

Twitter’s usage patterns are also very different from a typical on-line social network. A typical Twitter user contributes very rarely. Among Twitter users, the median number of lifetime tweets per user is one. This translates into over half of Twitter users tweeting less than once every 74 days.

twitter research 2.jpg

At the same time there is a small contingent of users who are very active. Specifically, the top 10% of prolific Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweets. On a typical online social network, the top 10% of users account for 30% of all production… This implies that Twitter’s resembles more of a one-way, one-to-many publishing service more than a two-way, peer-to-peer communication network.

Again, a lot more research needs to be done, but as one of those Twitter members in the active 10%, I do get the sensation that we are projecting the value that we get from Twitter onto the greater Twitterverse, without a shred of evidence to support this thesis.

It is paradoxical that the openness that Twitter, the company, says it embraces, from its API’s to its user-generated feature set, is so lacking when it comes to sharing their proprietary statistics, the politics of their suggested follow list or their plans with respect to providing access to their firehose and archives. Twitter is a privately held company and does not owe this to anyone, but then it should stop sending its executives around saying that they want Twitter to be like a public utility. They can’t have it both ways, but it won’t be for lack of trying.

The article correctly points out that Twitter’s deceivingly simple forumla — “the follower structure, link-sharing, real-time searching” — will become part of the fabric of our communication web regardless of how the Twitter the company fares.

They didn’t really invent any of the individual elements that make the service compelling, but they did stumble upon the recipe for mixing them together to create a tasty soufflé. Note that this word means “to blow up” or “puff up” and, of course, once taken out of the oven a soufflé tends to fall rather quickly.

Is this an apt analogy? Discuss.

Everybody’s gone surfin’

I thought I’d take a shot at riffing on Google Wave, “a new tool for communication and collaboration on the web”, according to its creators. But before we get into the details, just to get into the mood, check out this BBC video — a gorgeous slow motion view of a surfer on the perfect wave. Wow:

Or see the high definition (HD) version here. It’s worth it.

That was also my first reaction to Google Wave, well, “wow” in lower case. It’s an evolutionary step that rhymes with so many parallel developments all around the net that it already seems inevitable just a week after its presentation.

I am most interested in watching just how open source the Wave platform will actually be. And just how open the API’s and protocols will be. I think we have good reason to be optimistic that they will remain true to the spirit of openness because it is also in their interest to do so.

Why is that? Well, the more that Wave’s protocols and syntax are open, the faster it will grow with a developer community going out there and building tools, containers and services with wild abandon. Do you think that Google might be positioned rather well to provide search within the Wave universe? Messages, media, documents, location and social graphs all crawlable. This looks to be an, um, a challenge for our privacy protection. Can we get some of you smart developers thinking about that now? Thanks, and please revert soonest!

Compare this scenario to today’s realtime darling Twitter. (Sarcasm? yeah just a little bit, but I am a Twitter member and have gotten a huge amount of value from it.) The Twitterverse consists of a central platform, a basic hosted service on the platform and an extremely active ecosystem of third party clients and applications that make it just barely usable.

In what other environment is there great competition among free client applications? Email comes first to mind and let’s not forget instant messaging. In both cases there is huge value obtained from the fact that the protocol is standard and open. It was not always so in instant messaging land, and still not universally the case, but today I can use Pidgin, Meebo, Digsby, Adium or Trillian to talk to my Jabber, MSN, ICQ, Yahoo, iChat and AOL friends on one roster. So that seems to be where Twitter is headed — to be a protocol, and the biggest platform on the block adhering to that protocol.

I am hoping that Wave will be the catalyst to bring about the birth of a thousand new Twitters, truly open protocol and evolving realtime micro-messaging services, accessible through third party clients. XMPP has worked this way for years and it’s not for nothing that underneath Wave you find the XMPP protocol.

The Ingénue

I was thinking about my own naïveté in all matters computer-related just after I bought my first computer (a MacII, OS 2.0, circa 1987). I distinctly remember my profound disappointment when my shiny new computer did not live up to the myth that I had created for it! I was raised on the Jetsons and, dammit, computers were supposed to be powerful and simple to use.

Mary Pickford, perpetual ingénue

I bought my first copy of Microsoft Word (I think it was v.3). I fired up the program and soon learned that in order to do a simple mail merge (to send out identical, but personalized letters, to my mailing list) required me to read a brick of a guide book and spend many hours in frustrating trial and terror.

Similarly, I recall my first impression of hyperlinks, hypertext and hypermedia. It was such an utterly cool and liberating idea — that the organization of information need not be linear or strictly hierarchal, but could be determined by the clickstream of the operator. The idea of siloed content was anethema to this concept and was unimaginable to me at the birth of the Web.

AOL, Prodigy and Compuserve came along and changed my mind about that in a hurry.

Fastforward to 2009. Unless something comes along to derail the future, it seems pretty clear that the internets will develop into an environment with more open protocols designed to let you and me use whatever platform, device or application to play with our stuff. Our digital assets will be accessible via multiple pathways driven by our own intents and commands.

The point is that we are just now building the architecture worthy of a newbie’s dreams, fulfilling the original promise of hypermedia as conceived by Ted Nelson.

In order to get there, we need to be a lot more radical in making things that are easy to understand; they need to respond to who we are as creatures. Nelson said, “a user interface should be so simple that a beginner in an emergency can understand it within ten seconds.”

Open Stack service layer

Open Stack service layer

Looking at the state of the Open Stack (and here), and this is not to diminish the hard work being done by a lot of talented and well-meaning people, we seem light years away from this goal. The mashup tools allowing us to cross-post, to participate in and aggregate conversations, to deeply manage our social graphs and online identities are very primitive, and unusable by most people who have access to the Internet.

I am trying to recapture that blessed state in which computer-mediated actions seem magical and, most of all, useful and fun. It’s strange that the more supposedly advanced I become, the more easily wowed I am by new features that are not really all that cool to anyone outside of the high tech crowd. We spend way too much time talking among ourselves.

DWIW

The holy grail of human-computer interface design must be the DWIW function. I communicate with the machine and the machine just Does What I Want.

Do what I want!

Do what I want!

I was thinking about this after having played around with Wolfram Alpha. Actually what sparked this post was having seen so many tweets about it mistaking it for a search engine. The tagline of Wolfram Alpha is “computational knowledge engine”, not something like “find what you are looking for” or “let me find that for you?”

But people don’t read taglines very carefully and when they do they don’t think about them too seriously. They use past experience to parse the service and charge ahead accordingly.

In trying to keep it simple, and to develop a more natural language approach to the input field, the designers of the interface present a single text entry field followed by the plus sign [=] to communicate put your input here, click to see what we can compute from that.

The problem is that most people associate a plain input field with a submit button as = Google, not a computational knowledge engine. If you scan complaining tweets you will notice that the authors hit the [=] with a DWIW intention, expecting a search result, not computational knowledge.

We are living in the pre-dawn of a new age of human-computer interaction. Eventually we will get to the point at which a single input field (with textual, audio or even electro-neurological input) will  be semantically, behaviorally and contextually (time, place, device) aware — getting us that much closer to a true DWIW command. This will require a lot of groundwork, but seeing as though folks like Wolfram, Tim Berners-Lee and an army of others are on the case, I expect to see really cool developments becoming more commonplace over the next 5-20 years :-)

Anonymity in a connected world

I was reading this article Your Morning Commute is Unique: On the Anonymity of Home/Work Location Pairs, by Arvind Narayanan, and it got me thinking. (Thanks to @jamespage for pointing to this article.)

He starts out by citing this study by two PARC researchers and concluding that “for the average person, knowing their approximate home and work locations — to a block level — identifies them uniquely.” Isn’t it amazing how fast anonymity breaks down?

Cover art for new Penguin edition of Orwell's 1984 (Shepard Fairey)

Now just having those two data points alone would leave your anonymity intact, but the potential danger comes in if this information is able to be shared by or among mobile connectivity providers, credit card companies, government agencies, advertisers and social networking services.

It could be that my paranoia level was increased after having seen this article in New York Times describing the amount of data mining and interpretation currently being used by the credit card industry.

The exploration into cardholders’ minds hit a breakthrough in 2002, when J. P. Martin, a math-loving executive at Canadian Tire, decided to analyze almost every piece of information his company had collected from credit-card transactions the previous year… Martin’s measurements were so precise that he could tell you the “riskiest” drinking establishment in Canada — Sharx Pool Bar in Montreal, where 47 percent of the patrons who used their Canadian Tire card missed four payments over 12 months. He could also tell you the “safest” products — premium birdseed and a device called a “snow roof rake” that homeowners use to remove high-up snowdrifts so they don’t fall on pedestrians.

By the time he publicized his findings, a small industry of math fanatics — many of them former credit-card executives — had started consulting for the major banks that issued cards, and they began using Martin’s findings and other research to build psychological profiles.

So when people start to use their cell phones to pay for merchandise, location information will be added to the database, too. Conspiracy theorists, novelists and filmmakers, rejoice! There are some great storylines to be made from this stuff. But, seriously, should we be worried about these developments?

Late breaking: With respect to U.S. constitutional law, the New York State Supreme Court ruled that tracking a suspect via the global positioning system without a warrant violated his right to privacy. A stalker could be uniquely linked to the victim by GPS tracking, for instance. Hat tip to @stoweboyd for the lead. [Added 15 May 12:30 CET]